One of the most remarkable aspects of Donald Trump’s political career has been the reluctance of almost every major Republican to criticize or abandon him, no matter what trouble the former President finds himself in. Even after an insurrection, Trump’s continued propagation of the Big Lie, and four separate criminal indictments, most GOP lawmakers have remained obdurately loyal (and beholden) to the Republican party’s most powerful figure.
The common explanation for this is pure political calculation. To date there has been little risk in sticking with Trump and plenty of peril for those who antagonize him, upsetting his powerful “base” of voters and drawing his ire.
As a result of this simple risk-reward scenario, staying loyal to Trump has been an easy decision for Republicans to make. Electorally, it seemed to offer only an upside, and Republicans who took another path — say, Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney — soon found themselves disenfranchised and out of power.
But today, with the guilty plea in Georgia of Trump’s former lawyer Sidney Powell, that calculation is changing. Powell, among the most loyal of MAGA Trump personalities, agreed to a plea and probation in exchange for testimony against Trump in the first big sign that there is risk involved with Trump loyalty and that it isn’t all upside for his loyalists and alleged co-conspirators.
Former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance hints at this change in the calculus, writing that Powell’s “plea to misdemeanor charges signals that prosecutors see high value in her testimony.” Powell’s cooperation represents a key element in successful RICO prosecutions, where an alleged conspiracy is unraveled from the bottom up, beginning with smaller players and ultimately hitting the top of the pyramid. In legal parlance it’s known as “going up the chain.”
Vance also believes this means Powell will likely testify in the special counsel’s federal election case against Trump too. “Trump should be nervous,” Vance says, because the people Fulton County DA Fani Willis is turning — and seeks to turn — now were deeply embedded in the actions of Trump’s team at the time — and they are knowledgeable about the inner workings of the efforts to effect a change in the election results.
Vance wonders: “Chesebro next?”
A plea to misdemeanor charges signals that prosecutors see high value in her testimony. Trump should be nervous. & it's likely she'll be a witness in the fed'l case too. Chesebro next? https://t.co/G6m23wyitU
— Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) October 19, 2023
