American University professor Allan Lichtman, known for correctly predicting nine of the last 10 presidential elections (90 percent) including Donald Trump‘s unexpected win in 2016, currently believes that President Joe Biden is likely to win in November.
Lichtman spoke about his 13-key model and why Americans should ignore the polls — many of which currently indicate a dead heat or Trump winning — to former CNN correspondent Chris Cillizza who publishes a daily political newsletter, “So What,” via Substack.
Lichtman, who won’t release his final 2024 presidential prediction until late this summer, told Cillizza: “The biggest mistake political prognosticators make is relying on the polls.” He referred to George H. W. Bush trailing Mike Dukakis (by 17 points) in the polls in late spring, and Mitt Romney being ahead of Barack Obama in a 2012 Gallup poll.
This is the best counterpoint to polls showing Trump winning that I’ve read. It suggests despite the polls, longer term indicators that motivate voters very much Biden. Worth a read: https://t.co/FR59dSBvj4
— Alyssa Farah Griffin (@Alyssafarah) May 14, 2024
Alyssa Farah Griffin, former White House Director of Strategic Communications and Assistant to the President during the Trump administration, wrote of Cillizza’s report: “This is the best counterpoint to polls showing Trump winning that I’ve read. It suggests despite the polls, longer term indicators that motivate voters very much Biden. Worth a read.”
Note: Lichtman made his first prediction in April 1982 — of Ronald Reagan winning re-election — “when the nation was suffering from its worst recession since the Great Depression and Reagan’s approval was in the dumps. I have since used the same 13 keys for my predictions.”
