Second-place Arizona Governor candidate Kari Lake holds no elected office and never has, yet speculation abounds that Lake — a former news media personality — is among the frontrunners to board the GOP 2024 ticket with frontrunner and former President Donald Trump at the top.
The Trump ticket situation is unique in ways that make Lake’s filling the spot plausible, despite a lack of experience and national name recognition. Trump himself never held elected office before winning the presidency in 2016, and his DC-outsider status and his “drain the swamp” promises allow — even encourage — him to choose an inexperienced politician like Lake: She fits the MAGA brand.
For example, influential Trump strategist and insider Roger Stone “stands with Kari Lake,” as he wrote recently on X.
I stand with @KariLake . You should too. https://t.co/vCzhPXFHER
— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) July 28, 2023
Another reason Lake is reportedly high on the list is her willingness to express fealty and respect for Trump in a manner that makes even other Trump sycophants look second-rate in the flattery department, recently calling Trump a “giant,” for example, and saying the fearless Trump would “welcome an indictment” on charges he incited a coup against the U.S. government.
Then there are moments like the one in June where she threatened Special Counsel Jack Smith on Trump’s behalf, mentioning firearms in her pledge:
“If you want to get to President Trump,” Lake said, “you’re going to have to go through me, and 75 million Americans just like me. And most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA. That’s not a threat, that’s a public service announcement.”
Despite Lake’s efforts, however, at the moment — to judge by Trump’s most recent social media provocation — it appears Lake is no longer on the inside track for Vice President in a second Trump administration.
On Truth Social, Trump indicated that instead of participating in the first Republican primary debate, to which he has not committed, he’d be watching it to determine who his running mate “might” be. He won’t see Lake there, of course — she’s not in the running.
And even Trump, with his powerful grip on his loyal base, understands he will likely need to draw a few more undecideds to win a national race. Lake’s followers largely already camp inside Trump’s big space on the GOP’s political Venn diagram.
A VP candidate who brings something from outside the MAGA core, but who doesn’t rock the MAGA boat, could offer more value to the ticket than Lake.
Of course, Trump has made decisions based on less political calculus than this, sometimes choosing because someone, in his estimation, looks the part. (See: Rex Tillerson.)
“Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President!” Trump wrote about the candidates qualifying for the GOP debate, among whom only former NJ Governor Chris Christie has knocked Trump.
[NOTE: With his sizable lead and status as former President, Trump holds himself above the debate fray, portraying it as an unnecessary argument among also-rans.]
The GOP candidates who have qualified through meeting fundraising and polling metrics so far are: Doug Burgum, Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott — with former VP Mike Pence and Asa Hutchinson close to qualifying.
If Trump chooses from among the pool of candidates represented by that group, as he indicates, Lake gets tossed from consideration.
But as with all things Trump, it is perilous to predict. As his advisor Steven Cheung said back in March: “Anyone who thinks they know what President Trump is going to do is seriously misinformed and trying to curry favor with ‘potential’ V.P. candidates.”
