Former Fox News star Tucker Carlson promoted multiple fringe theories that fed the fear and flattered the insecurities of his viewers, from “great replacement” theory to the notion that January 6 was a new kind of “tourism.”
Yet none of that content — however dangerous critics warned it was — troubled Fox executives enough to kick him off the air. Nor was Carlson advised, as far as is known, to tone down such Republic-rending rhetoric.
So the question lingers about what really turned Fox execs around and led to Carlson’s ouster at the network, where he was among the most popular — and surely the most influential — of on-air personalities.
Speculation lands — too easily — on Fox’s Dominion lawsuit $787M payout, and Carlson’s role in giving Dominion an actionable case on the defamation charge.
But three factors may have been more perilous to Carlson’s career at Fox than the payout, which Rupert Murdoch knows is the cost of doing business. (Murdoch has paid exorbitant costs of doing business before, upon legal challenges.)
The three most likely triggers in Carlson’s firing are more pragmatic, and Murdoch is nothing if not pragmatic. Here are the three.
Murdoch wants to:
- move past Donald Trump
- move past Vladimir Putin
- make more money (from cable companies)
On Trump: There have been multiple signs at various Murdoch-owned enterprises that new political blood would be welcome — including a very friendly platform given to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Carlson, despite “hating” Donald Trump, embraced MAGA and Trumpism unwaveringly, making a move away from Trump more difficult.
[Note: Trump’s reaction to Carlson’s firing tacitly acknowledged their partnership. “He’s a very good person a very good man and very talented and he had very high ratings,” said Trump on NewsMax, a Fox competitor. “He’s been terrific especially over the last year or so he’s been terrific to me.”]
On Putin: Promoting racist ideology like the great replacement theory is one thing, but playing spokesperson for Putin may have eventually become the bridge too far. The Murdoch empire isn’t solely an American operation and Murdoch’s international conglomerate lives a whole lot closer to European concerns than the audience for Waco, Texas shenanigans.
In March, an anti-MAGA group of old school Republicans who still see Russia as a threat posted an alarming (and popular) video of Carlson “parroting” Putin, a capitulation considered even more dangerous by critics than the host’s race-baiting.
Establishment GOP member and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney shared the video:
We present one and a half minutes of Tucker Carlson parroting Vladimir Putin. New video from RAP: pic.twitter.com/W4ca6Gdrgz
— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) March 14, 2023
With global opinion — something Fox is keenly aware of — shifting dramatically on Russia, and disapproval of Putin’s leadership soaring, Carlson appears out of step with his audience on Russia, if not on his nationalist domestic agenda.
Gallup reports: “Across 137 countries in 2022, a median of 57% said they disapprove of Russia’s leadership — a dramatic increase from 38% in 2021 and by far the highest point in Gallup’s trend dating back to 2007.”
In a 2018 interview with The Times, Murdoch said of Putin: “He’s a brilliant tactician. He’s outplayed every other leader in the world. He’s played a poor hand brilliantly.”
But Murdoch also characterized Putin’s Crimea invasion as a “blatant land grab” in 2014 and now Putin has suffered an enormous reputation plunge after the current, far more violent land grab in Ukraine. Carlson looks duped, a look Murdoch doesn’t like.
On Cable: Then there are the upcoming cable deals for Fox. Cable TV has been hemorrhaging subscribers, and those who remain increasingly tend to fit the Fox News demographic. Media, by its nature, has a unrelenting thirst for the new — and sprucing up Fox News to sell it to cable providers is an imperative for News Corp.
The cable companies aren’t in a strong negotiating position, so Murdoch needs to make only a few aesthetic changes to signal that he’s got a new product for sale. Getting Carlson off the air is one of the easiest changes to make — akin to ditching fossil fuel (old, spent) for electric (new, clean) even though the Fox News engine will likely be driving to the same destination: Feeding the audience what it wants, a proven money-making strategy.
As Judd Legum writes at Popular Information: “Fox News currently charges about $2.18 per subscriber, higher than any other non-sports channel. Vanity Fair reports that Fox News is trying to push that number much higher to over $3.”
Legum quotes VF:
Fox News executives insist that sponsors have not been spooked by the Big Lie scandal, nor have the cable and satellite providers that carry the network. In the negotiations that are taking place this spring between Fox and the likes of Comcast, Fox wants to break past the three-buck mark—meaning three dollars per cable household per month, according to sources familiar with the matter. Even though the American cable universe is shrinking, [Rupert] Murdoch and his son Lachlan Murdoch are still extracting billions of dollars.
Vanity Fair
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