The New York Yankees pitching staff owns the fastest average velocity in Major League Baseball. But they don’t use it much, according to a new analysis. The Yanks throw fastballs just 40% of the time, an amazing figure that may signal a new MLB trend. Why? Because big data says fastballs aren’t as effective as they once were. Baseball, thanks to Bill James, Theo Epstein and company, has long been a leader in the marriage of sports and data, a marriage made famous by the Michael Lewis book and movie Moneyball.
This season the Yankees, according to Tom Verducci at SI, have an average fastball rate of 43%, even though the staff averages 94 mph on their heaters. (It could be, of course, that throwing fewer makes the average higher — like the NBA shooting percentages of big men who take two or three close-in shots per game.) Big data is influencing pitches all over the league and big data says the fastball is getting hit more as players adapt to more common high velocity. They’d rather see the heater than the wicked junk pitchers can unleash from the mound these days, junk that keeps them guessing and lunging. Today the fastball is a bit of a Trojan horse for pitchers in the famous pinstripes — they throw it to make room for their other pitches. A slider is that much more effective if the hitter might think it’s a fastball for a millisecond, just the way a big wooden horse might look like a gift, until…
