Having pushed the legislation through the House of Representatives, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is promoting President Donald Trump‘s “big, beautiful bill” as one that will save $1.5 trillion (“the largest amount of savings in the history of planet earth” according to Johnson) and reduce the national deficit.
Economists around the world are refuting Johnson’s claim including Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, who responded on X by writing: “I’m going to explain how you end up with the Speaker of the House just fully lying about something as simple and basic as the deficit. To start with, there is zero question that their bill increases the deficit. It 100% does.”
Linden first offers a simple definition of the deficit: “The deficit is the difference between annual spending (money out) and annual revenue (money in). When less comes in than goes out, that’s the deficit.” Linden points out the “deficit” does not mean “spending,” as he says Johnson would like Americans to believe.
[NOTE: The White House press release on the bill is titled FACT: One, Big, Beautiful Bill Cuts Spending, Fuels Growth. It claims the bill “includes the single largest welfare reform in American history. Along with the largest tax cut and reform in American history. The most aggressive energy exploration in American history. And the strongest border bill in American history. All while reducing the deficit.”]
Ok, bear with me for a slightly wonky thread here. I'm going to explain how you end up with the Speaker of the House just fully lying about something as simple and basic as the deficit.
— Michael Linden (@MichaelSLinden) May 29, 2025
To start with, there is zero question that their bill increases the deficit. It 100% does. https://t.co/HGDO2uKgtR
[Note: Prior to joining Equitable Growth, Linden served in the Biden Administration and was a senior advisor and then the executive associate director at the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), where he worked on a wide array of public policies and was integral in producing the President’s budget.]
Linden added: “Republicans are pushing [a] budget bill that *will* cut spending (by taking away health care and food assistance), but it cuts taxes even more. So the deficit goes UP (less money out, but a WHOLE LOT less money in).
“When Speaker Johnson goes on TV and says, ‘no no, this bill will reduce the deficit’ now you understand why he feels so comfortable totally lying about this. To him, it’s not a lie, because to him, ‘deficit’ is just a word that means ‘spending.’
“And just [so] I’m extremely clear: Republicans in Congress ARE increasing the deficit by a lot. They can pretend ‘deficit’=’spending’ or rely on magic growth assumptions or decry the evil CBO (which is run by a Republican, BTW) all they want. It doesn’t change the facts in real life.”
Citing the CBO’s results, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote in May 21: “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its first comprehensive estimate of the House’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill – the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – finding that before accounting for interactions, the bill would add $2.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade. Incorporating our estimates of interactions and the adjustments announced by House leadership Monday, we estimate the bill would add $3.1 trillion to the debt as written.” The bill is slated for changes in the Senate.
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