Thursday night NFL games aren’t usually high scoring affairs, a fact most attribute to short turnaround and lack of offensive preparation. The Jets-Bills would figure to be a low-scoring affair even on Sunday — so the Thursday Night Football week 2 matchup between the AFC (and New York State) rivals figures to be a snooze, if offense is what you like. The Over/Under is stuck at 40, the lowest O/U of any NFL week 2 game. (Patriots-Dolphins is next at 41.) With so few points expected to be scored, the point spread move of 4.5 points since the open is an unusually large move. Questions surrounding Sammy Watkins’ foot soreness (post surgery) — and whether it’ll hinder him — seem to be the chief cause of the spread’s big transition.
The Bills began as 3-point favorites, but enter the game as 1.5-point underdogs despite the Bills being home at New Era Field. X-rays on Watkins’ foot have reportedly come back negative, and Watkins has said he will play. There is some speculation that the Bills will hold him out. But the spread’s move probably figures on Watkins playing, but with limited efficiency. Watkins has played 30 games for the Bills and caught more than seven passes in six of them, according to YardsPerPass. The Bills are 5-1 in those games. Watkins health is obviously a reason to move the line.
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Sammy Watkins has played in 30 games now as a Bill. In those 30 games he has had 7+ catches only 6 times!
Bills are 5-1 in those games
— YardsPerPass.com (@YardsPerPass) September 15, 2016