Hindsight is 20/20 -- at least. Basketball and the players who play it are unpredictable -- at best. A guy who can't get off the bench for a team that's under .500 can get traded to a contender and suddenly grab 8 rebounds a game. So much is chemistry. But for every LeBron James -- rightly predicted to be a phenom -- there are notable busts like Adam Morrison and Darko Milicic.
The rich 2009 NBA draft saw 2015 NBA MVP Stephen Curry drafted 7th. He'd obviously be #1 today -- or not. (It still might be Blake Griffin, or James Harden.) Draftexpress shows that some of the Steph Curry info at draft time was right: he was the top scorer in the country, after all. The scouts were impressed. But they also said: "[Curry] does not project to become a prolific slasher at the NBA level. His first step is average at best, and considering his skinny frame and poor explosiveness around the basket in traffic, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to get to the free throw line anywhere near as much in the NBA as he does in college." Defensively, Curry is "extremely limited by his poor physical tools." Curry currently ranks 8th in post-season average free throw attempts among players still in the playoffs. His defense has been laudable.
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