The presidential election on October 26th is not only the closest race in Brazil’s history, it is also the most important. Incumbent Dilma Rousseff has plans to further destroy Brazil’s economy, while challenger Aécio Neves plans on bringing it back to life. Each candidate’s election chances have been hovering around 50% until recently when Rousseff’s chances shot up to 62%.
When Rousseff’s chances of re-election went from 48% to 62% this morning, the Brazilian stock market crashed 4.8% in response. As a reference, that would have been one of the biggest daily moves for the U.S. stock market during the heat of the financial crisis in 2008. A Rousseff victory is expected to send the Brazilian stock market down 13%, while a Neves win is expected to send the market up 20%. With a market cap of around one trillion dollars and an expected 33% swing, there is over 300 billion dollars on the line for Brazil in the upcoming election.
-- Doug Yass is an analyst at Pivit, the gaming app that uses advanced algorithms to predict outcomes and percentages in real-time.
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